Which appeared a few years ago rumors of a possible bankruptcy of a partner and automotive giant OAO "AvtoVAZ" General Motors once again began to disturb the stock market. July 1, 2008. company has published a report on sales in the U.S., which indicated that in June 2008. sales declined by 18.5% over the same period in 2007. Sales for the first half of 2008. decreased by 16.5%. The situation was aggravated analysts Merril Lynch, which lowered the rating on the stock to "buy" to "below market" and said that the U.S. largest automaker may face the threat of bankruptcy. Wednesday, July 2, in trading in U.S. shares General Motors, a member of the Dow Jones collapsed by 15.1%. Trading in securities of U.S. automakers in New York the first time since 1954. completed at less than $ 10 per share. According to the analyst Merrill Lynch, John Murphy, a significant drop in car sales in the U.S. may continue into 2009. "If the situation continues to deteriorate in the market, we can not exclude bankruptcy GM", - he said. According to Dzh.Merfi, companies will have to raise additional funds in the amount of $ 15 billion Forecast GM stock price has been reduced by 75% Dzh.Merfi - up to $ 7 over the past 12 months, GM paper fell by 74%. Experts note that this is the most significant decline among the 30 companies included in the index Dow Jones Industrial Average. Industry analysts believe that the problems at GM will not prevent cooperation with the auto giant's Russian manufacturer, the more that the JV "GM-AvtoVAZ" can not be considered too close to the size of the business background of most GM. For AvtoVAZ joint venture with GM is the most successful venture, says analyst "Veles Capital" Marina Irklii. Produced by the volume of production is sold almost in its entirety, Chevrolet-Niva enjoys stable demand, with virtually no price and high quality analogs. Cooperation with General Motors GM AvtoVAZ motivated by the desire secure a leading position in the Russian automobile market which is projected to take several years leading position in Europe, commented General Director of UFG "Invest" (UFG Asset Management) Andrew Podoinitsyna. "It's hard to imagine that GM will review the format of cooperation because of financial problems," - he said. More likely, according to experts, will be restructured U.S. units, which are characterized by much higher costs, lower capacity and tough stance of trade unions. Head of analytical department of "Arbat Capital," Sergei Fundobny believes that fears of insolvency are now GM is greatly exaggerated. According to him, the company is able to cope with their short-term obligations at the expense of having to balance liquidity. Most of the company's debt are pension obligations, which means that extended for decades to come payment period. GM owns a significant number of brands and an even greater number of production sites worldwide, the analyst said. Joint venture with AvtoVAZ in this series, he said - a fairly small project. "It makes little sense to say that the threat of bankruptcy GM somehow affect his relationship with AvtoVAZ. In the event that bankruptcy does take place, most likely, AvtoVAZ will be asked to buy out GM's joint venture" - said the expert . In this case, however, S. Fundobny noted that a drop in prices of one of the largest automakers in the world is left without the attention of investors on the Russian market on Friday, July 4, and ordinary and preferred shares are traded in AvtoVAZ "red" zone. Nevertheless, shares of AvtoVAZ is not reduced significantly, especially given the "drawdown" in the shares of GM, said the expert. The reason, according to him - and much more, low liquidity, and almost complete independence from the state of AvtoVAZ American car market. "The expected changes to the charter companies and other corporate events are now much more important factor for investors with shares in their portfolios AvtoVAZ", - concluded the analyst. Western banks, however, is not likely too pessimistic assessment of the situation at GM. In GM also announced that the company had ample opportunity to address the problem, including the sale of assets, reducing structural costs so forth. This week the company announced it would cut production in the III quarter in North America by 12% to 900 thousand cars. Worst-case scenario - the sale of the company - is considered unlikely. In this case, the buyer will have to invest in production (the company's capitalization is more than $ 7 billion), but also to take on its debts in the billions. If, however, will be a real bankruptcy, a company may sell in pieces. OJSC "AvtoVAZ" (Togliatti), registered 5 January 1993. The company in 2007. in the Russian market sold 663.5 thousand vehicles (6.2%). Exports of cars in 2007. increased by 7.9% - to 106.9 thousand units. The volume of sales of JSC "AvtoVAZ" in Russia January-May 2008. compared to the same period in 2007. grew by 17.9% - to 273.8 thousand cars. Automotive General Motors Corporation provides freight and passenger cars in 33 countries. The company sells cars under the brands Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC, GM Daewoo, Holden, HUMMER, Opel, Pontiac, Saab, Saturn and Vauxhall. In seven European countries, has approximately 10 production and assembly plants GM. One of the shareholders of GM is Oleg Deripaska (less than 5%). JV "GM-AvtoVAZ" in the first half of 2008. produced 29 thousand 656 vehicles, up 10.5% over the same period of 2007. Since the beginning of the production assembly line "GM-AvtoVAZ" descended 264 thousand 273 vehicles sold - 264 thousand 165 vehicles, of which exports - 24 thousand 796 vehicles. Tatiana Romanova
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