"The program of juice - from the category of science fiction»

Analyst "Gazprombank" Alexei Astapov, about anti-crisis program of CRS for "AvtoVAZ": Immediately striking is that in his plan SOK Group is focused on exogenous factors, in particular, a significant improvement in external market conditions. The proposed plan "recovery" AvtoVAZ is calculated based on monthly sales of Lada 50 000, and "Field" and the Chevy-Niva to 150 000 - 200 000 cars a year, absolutely unrealizable in the short term. Statistics for the first half of 2009 shows that monthly sales of Lada cars in January - June amounted to about 30 000 cars. I believe that this level of sales will continue until the end of the year, while growth in the first half of 2010 will be insignificant, so talking about $ 50 000 per month until you have. Growth in car sales "Niva" and Chevy-Niva to 150 000 - 200 000 cars a year is something out of "fiction" because it implies a fourfold increase in the implementation of these brands of cars from current levels. Optimistic sounds and a doubling of sales of spare parts. Sales of spare parts is much more stable than selling cars themselves, because the driver of demand for parts not favor the growth of real incomes and the overall state fleet of cars, so this source of income will be stable in the medium term. Speaking of buying a controlling interest in the automaker with a broad product line, STC and the base of suppliers for the purchase of CRS hints "IZH-Avto", which is the controlling shareholder of the group itself is. Company (SOC and "AvtoVAZ") were close to a deal on "IZH-Auto" in early 2008, but have not reached a final agreement, but postponed a crisis plan "AvtoVAZ" to acquire the asset for an indefinite period. If directly analyze the proposals of CSR, they tend to be general in nature. Need for reorganization and selection of auxiliary facilities and selling non-core businesses, building long-term and mutually beneficial relations with suppliers, investing only in high-margin projects. That is specified in terms of the group - long known that theses are not backed by concrete proposals. The only thing that will help "AvtoVAZ" to get out of this situation - the adjustment of operating activities in accordance with the current level of demand, which means a severe cost control. While the car has been collecting "pre-crisis" state of 110 000 people, talk about entering the break-even point is not necessary. Elena Kostiakov